When you share Expected Goals, include the definition so non-technical audiences understand the impact.
Charts turn Expected Goals into an easy story. Start with a pizza chart for a broad scan, then isolate the metric in a bar chart.
Distribution snapshot
See how Expected Goals is spread across players from the last 365 days of data.
Top performers (last 365 days)
Expected Goals definition
Expected Goals (xG) is a probability metric that estimates how likely a shot is to be scored based on historical outcomes of similar chances. Most xG models use features such as shot location, angle, body part, assist type, and sometimes game state to assign each shot a value between 0 and 1. Summed over time, xG estimates how many goals a player or team would be expected to score from the quality of chances created, making it a cornerstone of modern football analytics.
How analysts use Expected Goals
xG is widely used to separate sustainable performance from short-term variance. Comparing goals to xG can indicate overperformance (finishing hot streak) or underperformance (poor finishing or strong goalkeeping faced). For player scouting, xG per shot helps evaluate shot selection and chance quality, while xG per 90 helps evaluate how frequently a player gets into dangerous scoring positions. For tactical analysis, xG can validate whether a team's style is generating consistently high-quality chances or relying on low-probability shots. Because xG models vary across providers, the best comparisons use the same model for all players and seasons, and analysts often supplement xG evaluation with shot maps and video review to understand the tactical origins of chances.
How to interpret Expected Goals
Use Expected Goals alongside related metrics in the attacking category to understand role fit and tactical impact.
- Compare within the same competition or position group
- Use percentile ranks to normalize minutes played
- Combine with at least one supporting metric
Best charts for Expected Goals
Pizza charts surface it in context, while bar charts isolate the metric for direct comparisons.
- Pizza chart for full profile context
- Bar chart for side-by-side comparisons
- Exported visuals for reports and social sharing
Sources and definitions
Start building charts
Turn Expected Goals into shareable charts for reports and scouting decks.
Related metrics
Goals
The Goals metric is used to describe attacking output in player analysis.
Assists
The Assists metric is used to describe attacking output in player analysis.
Goals + Assists
Goals + Assists combines goals and assists to summarize a player's direct scoring contribution.
Shots
The Shots metric is used to describe attacking output in player analysis.
Shots on Target
The Shots on Target metric is used to describe attacking output in player analysis.
Shots off Target
Shots off target count attempts recorded as missing the target in FBPlot's football data.
Frequently asked questions
What does Expected Goals measure?
The Expected Goals metric is used to describe attacking output in player analysis.
When should I use Expected Goals?
Use Expected Goals when you need to evaluate attacking contributions and compare players in similar roles.
Which charts highlight Expected Goals?
Pizza charts give context across metrics, while bar charts isolate the metric for direct comparisons.
Where can I learn related metrics?
Use the metrics glossary to explore complementary stats in the same category.